Carey Burgess spoke at our last meeting, and discussed the recent weather and its role in the floods.
By proclamation from our president Layng Guerriero, Carey is now the official meteorologist for the Rotary Club of Kerrville.
Carey noted that last year a tropical storm remnant parked on the headwaters of the Guadalupe, whereas this year we were affected by a broad low pressure system that combined with gulf moisture to create the rains over a broad swath of the Hill Country for several days. Several area rivers flooded before our Guadalupe and local creeks, including the Medina, San Saba, Nueces, Sabinal and Pedernales.
Preparation was much better this time because of the newly installed sirens and phone notifications, and people heeded the warnings. The rain dumped 5"-7" of rain per hour in some areas, including up to 24" total in some parts of Ingram.
The systems that initiated the major floods seem to favor July, with most of the severe floods of the last fifty years occurring in mid summer. Those include 1978, 1987, 2002, 2025 and 2026. There were also significant floods in 1932 and 1959. It only takes one to two hours of intense rainfall (5"-7" per hour) to cause major flooding. And unfortunately, the storms often seem to come in the middle of the night.
This year is expected to be an El Nino year, with above average rainfall in the fall and winter.